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EM

ENTERGY MISSISSIPPI, LLC (EMP)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Adjusted EPS was $1.53, up 2% year over year; management narrowed FY25 adjusted EPS guidance to $3.85–$3.95, raising the bottom by $0.10 .
  • Utility earnings were $810M while Parent & Other posted a $(117)M loss; operating cash flow surged on higher customer receipts and monetized nuclear/solar tax credits .
  • Management highlighted accelerating large-load demand, expanding hyperscale data center pipeline to 7–12 GW, and securing 4.5 GW of “power island” equipment to meet future needs — a key growth catalyst for the stock narrative .
  • Regulatory wins across Texas and Louisiana, and Entergy Mississippi’s Superpower Mississippi initiative ($300M grid hardening, no customer rate impact given new industrial revenues) support the medium-term thesis .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We had another successful quarter” with adjusted EPS $1.53 and narrowed FY25 guidance, indicating execution confidence .
  • Operating cash flow increased sharply QoQ and YoY, driven by customer receipts and monetized nuclear/solar production tax credits sales .
  • Data center pipeline expansion (7–12 GW) and 4.5 GW of secured long-lead equipment position the fleet for multi-year load growth; equity forwards settled (~$800M through Q3, ~$330M post-quarter) strengthen funding .

What Went Wrong

  • Higher other O&M, taxes other than income taxes, interest expense, and depreciation/amortization partially offset earnings drivers .
  • Share dilution from forward equity settlements and higher stock price reduced per-share results versus underlying earnings lift .
  • Parent & Other remained a drag at $(117)M with loss primarily due to prior-year legal provision changes, though improved YoY .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.82 $1.05 $1.53
Utility EPS ($)$1.11 $1.34 $1.79
Revenues ($USD Millions)$423.7*$491.9*$577.1*
EBITDA Margin %35.93%*41.17%*44.24%*
EBIT Margin %19.89%*27.25%*32.27%*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown:

SegmentQ3 2024 ($MM)Q3 2025 ($MM)
Utility earnings attributable$787 $810
Utility EPS ($)$1.82 $1.79
Parent & Other earnings attributable$(142) $(117)
Parent & Other EPS ($)$(0.33) $(0.26)

KPIs:

KPIQ3 2024Q3 2025
Operating Cash Flow – Utility ($MM)$1,600 $2,177
Operating Cash Flow – Parent & Other ($MM)$(37) $(42)
Operating Cash Flow – Consolidated ($MM)$1,562 $2,135

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EPSFY 2025$3.75–$3.95 (Q1 release) $3.85–$3.95 (Q3) Raised bottom by $0.10
Capital Plan (context)2026–2029N/A~$41B highlighted on call Informational (not formal guidance)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Hyperscale data centers pipelineActive pipeline; industrial demand strong (Q1/Q2) Pipeline expanded to 7–12 GW; Google West Memphis covering full costs; focus on fair cost allocation Accelerating
Grid resilience (Mississippi)Investments underway; formula rate mechanisms evolving (Q1/Q2) “Superpower Mississippi” $300M initiative; goal to halve outages in 5 years; supported by new industrial revenues Strengthening
Regulatory approvalsTX generation/transmission approvals; LA approvals for large-customer support (Q2) LPSC/PUCT approvals reiterated; SETEX 500 kV project; continued constructive outcomes Positive
Long-lead equipmentBuilding supply chain; standardization (Q2) Added 4.5 GW of “power island” equipment to meet 2031–2032 operations Expanding
Funding planBlock equity forward (~$1.5B executed; liquidity managed) (Q1) ~45% of equity needs through 2027 covered; ~$800M settled through Q3, ~$330M post-quarter De-risking

Management Commentary

  • “We had another successful quarter executing on initiatives for all our customers,” with adjusted EPS $1.53 and narrowed FY25 guidance .
  • On load growth: “Our pipeline of potential data center customers continues to expand,” underscored by 4.5 GW of additional equipment agreements to meet future needs .
  • Mississippi reliability: Superpower Mississippi will invest $300M to harden the grid, targeting a 50% outage reduction within five years with no added customer cost due to new industrial revenues .

Q&A Highlights

  • Capex plan and equipment: ~$41B 2026–2029 capex plan; added 4.5 GW of power island equipment to align with visible pipeline and commissioning timelines; regulatory approval processes are embedded in plan .
  • Equity forward progress: ~45% of equity need through 2027 covered via forward mechanisms, reducing financing risk amid elevated capital deployment .
  • Customer cost allocation: Hyperscale customer agreements are structured to ensure they “pay their fair share” and protect affordability for existing customers (e.g., Google West Memphis commitment) .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue for Q3 2025 were unavailable in our feed; result: no beat/miss determination can be made from S&P data. Actual adjusted EPS: $1.53 .
  • Where available, estimates will be used; here, lack of S&P consensus implies limited near-term model recalibration signal, though guidance narrowing (raising low end) suggests upward bias to FY25 bottom bound.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guidance tightening and strong OCF are supportive; the raised FY25 bottom bound is a positive signal of confidence and execution.
  • Data center pipeline expansion (7–12 GW) and secured 4.5 GW of equipment are structural load growth catalysts; regulatory progress in TX/LA reduces execution risk .
  • Watch cost inflation and elevated O&M/taxes/interest as partial offsets; share count dilution remains a per-share headwind .
  • Mississippi program (Superpower Mississippi) strengthens reliability with no customer rate impact, enhancing stakeholder value and regulatory goodwill .
  • Near-term trading: narrative lever is large-load signings (ESAs) and additional regulatory milestones; catalysts include commissioning progress (e.g., Orange County Advanced Power Station) and further monetization of tax credits .
  • Medium-term thesis: constructive regulation, industrial growth, and disciplined funding plan (equity forwards) underpin >8% EPS CAGR aspirations (management long-term outlook commentary on call) .

Notes:

  • Non-GAAP adjusted EPS excludes unusual/regulatory items; see release for reconciliation and definitions .
  • Earnings drivers by line item and per-share variance details are summarized in Appendices A–B of the release .